Survivor Panama: Exile Island
Working the Alpha Males
The Nut Case Alliance continues to strengthen

Strategy commentary by VikingBear
Sunday, 5 March 2006

Blessed are the peace makers, for they shall inherit the earth. On the very first episode, Cirie marked herself as the one to watch. Afraid of leaves, she was the obviously weakest link - but when it came to Tribal Council, the women voted out the strongest and fittest and most able to help the tribe to survive. Tina, not Cirie, was gone.

The second episode, when the tribes were split into Casaya and La Mina, taking over the older mens' shelter and the older womens' shelter, the women's shelter had kept them dry. Who built it? Tina! But Tina is gone, and Cirie is not. In due course, Shane announced that one of the two older women was gone that night. He didn't care who. Melinda is gone, and Cirie is not.

Were the women foolish to send Tina home? Probably so! Why in the world would they have sent Tina home first thing, when they should have sent Cirie? That must mean that Cirie is someone special, with her ability to dodge a sure-thing vote. She's in a good position, I think, to take the whole thing.

We'll talk more about Cirie in a moment. We'll take a closer look at what, specifically, she is doing right amidst the chaos known as Casaya.

THE BIG PICTURE

Survivor, for me, has a distinct beginning game, middle game, and end game. Last week, I suggested that we had stepped from the beginning game squarely into the middle game. I also suggested that this week, we would see who is really here to play the game, and who is not. And so we have!

This week, from a strategy standpoint, I would call "developing the pieces." Individual strategies came into focus, but there was no specific visible end in mind. There was no major twist, no major betrayal or "flip." In the process, though, we saw some fascinating developments!

I suggested a couple of weeks ago, and I still see it as true, that the Nut Cases seem to have ended up in Casaya, and the fools in La Mina. The result continues to be a peculiar balance - to put it mildly - which is certainly entertaining to watch! The game continues to be an extremely even back-and-forth series of contests.

In each tribe, the power resides in a three-person alliance. I should say, the potential power. It's there, but has not yet been used to dictate The Way Things Will Be. With Casaya, it's the three women, Danielle, Courtney, and Cirie. With La Mina, it's the three younger persons, Austin, Nick, and Sally.

Both of those three-person alliances is positioned to turn the game upside down. Either of those three-person alliances could take on any target; they are not specifically aligned against any particular person or faction. They're ready to jump, but the direction has not yet been decided. (This is what I meant by the general "development of pieces.")

It's about time for a "twist" in the game. It could be someone visiting the other tribe; it could be something new about Exile Island; it could be a shuffling of tribe members. Next week's preview implies the twist is coming next week - and we know that various people are already positioned to take advantage of that twist, whatever it might be.

(If I recall correctly, Jeff said that at least one person would visit Exile Island each "week." What if one person from each tribe, for example, is sent to Exile Island to spend a couple of days together, isolated from either tribe?)

As we look at each tribe, keep the big picture in mind. We are early in the "middle game," still a long ways from the end game. The merge could be fairly soon, but chances are that we'll see some sort of "twist" or shuffling prior to that merge.

What does that mean? It means that alliances could shift. The total number of persons in the tribe might not be the answer.

For example, suppose the merge were to happen right now. Casaya has 6 persons and La Mina has 5. That might mean that all five La Mina members will be voted off over the next five Tribal Councils. (That's called Pagonging, that is, Casaya will have Pagonged La Mina.)

However, as things stand now, the numbers are not that simple. So far as we know, Bruce has only made a promise to Bobby - and Bobby is gone. Bruce need only join La Mina to seal the fate of Aras and Courtney.

So, to be sure, raw numbers going into the merge are important, but equally important is the ability to turn the game upside down when the time comes. We got to see a taste of that ability this week, and it was delicious!

CASAYA

Conventional wisdom is that Casaya continues to implode, and everyone is astounded that the four-person alliance of Shane, Aras, Danielle, and Courtney, has lasted this long. I continue to see things quite differently, and thus far I do seem to be on the right track, so we'll continue to run with it!

What is it that keeps the Nut Case Alliance so strong? It's Shane! Sure, he's psychotic, predictably unpredictable, annoying, and perhaps a bit scary. He's at the center of the chaos - and that's the secret of their success.

When Shane the Dramatic is at the center of the chaos, he's in his element. That chaos is his comfort zone. He works quite effectively in that environment. Of course, the moment it's not all about Shane, we have a problem. But since it is all about Shane, things run smoothly.

Aras' in-your-face confrontational style blends in beautifully, adding to the chaos. Courtney is certified to be one of the three most annoying persons in the history of this planet, but in the process, she keeps it being all about Shane. Danielle, too, is comfortable with confrontation, so with everyone annoyed, everyone is happy!

Last week I suggested that perhaps Cirie was wise to not attempt to align with Bruce, or Bobby - or with the Nut Case Alliance. The danger was that she might get caught being aligned with the wrong person.

And, sure enough, Cirie seems to have slipped into a very strong position. It was so smooth I hardly even noticed! Cirie was simply there, and everyone trusted her without question. She has been the peace maker, the diplomat, has not taken sides, has been no threat to anyone. She's friendly and pleasant to be around, and she has proven to be of true value both in challenges and around camp.

The funny thing is, nobody seems to think there's any danger of Cirie taking charge! Well, that much is true... her only danger is that it's looking likely that it won't ever occur to anybody, to vote Cirie out. Cirie's vote is available, smooth and casual-like. She's not determining the vote; she's just being available as a friend (and the deciding vote). Can you see why I'm strongly reminded of Sandra from Pearl Islands?

The women are aware of their power... why didn't they simply vote out Shane? They trust Bruce; the three women plus Bruce could have sent either Shane or Aras home. They could have used Bobby the same way.

But they didn't... they worked through Shane. It may be weeks before we fully appreciate the subtlety of this move. They left Shane at the center of the universe, gave him his bit of drama, and things went the way Danielle and Courtney suggested.

In a tribe of seven, you normally need four votes to send somebody home. The women sent Bobby home with only three votes - their three votes! (I believe it's been six seasons since four different people have received votes in a Tribal Council.) In Casaya, the women absolutely control the vote - but are not taking the tribe's leadership. This will be interesting!

The vote itself may get some people thinking... and it's about time. It looked like people had forgotten that Bruce might have the Exile Island Immunity Idol. Such a widely split vote could have a weird backlash when the Idol comes into play. Bruce has been kept at arm's length within Casaya, so from Casaya's perspective, the idea of Bruce having the Idol might be quite plausible. This was Bruce's first time to grab a torch; again, the fact that he's something of an unknown factor might come into play.

I suspect that Aras is far more vulnerable than he thinks. Shane sees Aras as his eventual competition (and therefore a threat). That vote for Aras was a throw-away vote? Yeah, right, tell me another one! The women worked through Shane to reverse Aras' preference for removing Bruce.

Bruce, right now, is expendable. Bruce can be sent home without affecting the core alliance of the four Nut Cases. He hasn't performed especially well in the competitions. When an adult is being childish, he doesn't like being called childish! When an adult has her eye on the last bottle, she doesn't like waking up to find that bottle empty!

Fortunately, it's not that simple. The women, fortunately, have proven to be far more subtle. (I say fortunately, because I continue to root for Bruce!) I suspect they will leave Shane at the center of the universe - after all, Shane is the reason they win competitions with all these Nut Cases abroad - and remove Aras. Shane will undoubtedly be targeted by Terry after the merge. Let Terry take the heat, and the women keep their hands clean.

Meanwhile, Shane knows that Aras is an eventual threat to him personally - far more than Bruce is. When the women work him right, he'll see things their way. I expect Cirie will say one sentence, or maybe two, that will clinch the deal.

Once again, I'm hopeful that Bruce's poor performance will keep him in the game! As we approach the merge, knowing that we have some women who are most definitely here to play the game, we can expect the strongest to be going home before the weaker. Bruce has also stated his willingness and intention to become more open, and to talk things out. With the women controlling Casaya for the moment, that may play well indeed, contrasted against Aras's in-your-face bullying.

Speaking of which... what was that bit with Aras confronting Bruce, after Aras was trying to get the fire going, and Bruce was developing the rock garden? It looks to me like the whole point was completely missed, so let me take a moment and explain!

Aras asked for help with the fire, saying they were in a critical situation. Bruce responded with, "Go get firewood." Aras got upset, and turned the situation into a confrontation.

Let's take a moment and think about this. Why? Because we may see the same little thing play out with Aras over and over again - if Aras is around long enough, that is!

Let's assume for the moment that Bruce actually knows something about building fires in difficult situations. (I have a bit of expertise there, too, which is why I'm able to explain!) He's asked for assistance. Bruce has a couple of options. He could proceed to build it himself, or he could instruct how to do it, which has the added benefit of imparting the knowledge to someone else.

Unfortunately Bruce chose the latter route. Aras was too immature to recognize what was happening. He expected confrontation, and so what he saw in Bruce's response, was belligerance rather than help. Bruce, unfortunately, failed to realize that Aras is too full of himself. Aras himself said, "we are not your students," when he himself asked for help!

Aras couldn't build the fire, so he asked Bruce to do it for him instead. (That's the Aras perspective.) Bruce saw that Aras had tried to build the fire, but was not yet successful. Bruce began enabling Aras to complete the task. (That's the Bruce perspective.) Meanwhile, I think it's absolutely hilarious that Aras is so upset with the rock garden during fire building, after Aras first began firebuilding with the guys stacking their hands above each other for the energy!

So what was Bruce trying to say? That fact was completely lost in the confrontation that followed.

Bruce said to get more firewood. Aras said they had firewood. But, remember, the firewood they had wasn't yielding them a fire. The first step really is to get more firewood! Aras was so busy being insulted that he couldn't figure out that the current firewood supply wasn't getting him a fire.

When you're building a fire in difficult conditions, and you eventually get a bit of a start, you need to have the various kinds of firewood at hand, within close reach. You need to have enough of the various kinds. What happens if you don't? The fire really can go out in that second and a half it takes to grab something that's just out of reach!

At that point it's not a mere matter of starting over. With everything that wet, it could be a very long time before you've collected enough tinder to get things going again. When the conditions are tough, you can't get the fire started and then collect more wood if it's needed. The first step really is to get more wood, and in the process, get the right kind of wood.

We'll never know, but it's quite possible that Bruce intended to work with some of the current wood, making more tinder, while Aras was assisting by getting more wood.

Bruce is disposable. Shane is a major target. But I won't be at all surprised to see Aras blind-sided, and soon.

LA MINA

Mark Twain wrote words to the effect, "One who has picked up a cat by the tail, has a far deeper understanding of cats, than one who has merely read about the event." Nick and Austin, I think, now truly understand the need to eat beans in moderation when coming off an extended fast.

Experience is important. Experience, of course, is gained immediately after you could have used its wisdom. We've all gained experience the hard way. I, for one, am thankful that I wasn't privileged to gain my experience on national television. To be fair, though, I should thank Nick and Austin for being so entertaining... and kudos for being such good sports throughout the gaining of experience.

La Mina's strategy seems to be pretty much limited to sending Terry to Exile Island so he can relax and recuperate, and then come win the Immunity Challenge for them. And, come to think of it, that strategy seems to be working pretty well!

Last week, I was less than impressed with La Mina while Terry was on Exile Island. Dan suggested they do things around camp; instead, they took a nap.

Little did I realize... doing nothing was a good plan! This week, they actually did something. They cooked beans. We can only hope that Nick and Austin made it far enough away from their camp, and made it downwind.

Let's see... Sally threw away the fishing spear; the beans cooked the boys... maybe next week, Terry will go to Exile Island and the boys will contrive to sink their raft.

Meanwhile, Terry has the Immunity Idol, and he gets weekly vacations on Exile Island. This is great if you're Terry, but what about the rest of La Mina?

I don't think Terry can be removed prior to the merge - not when he has the Exile Island Immunity Idol. Dan seems to have narrowed himself to a single option, namely Terry. Dan therefore is on the sidelines so far as strategy is concerned.

I think, therefore, Nick, Austin, and Sally, hold the power when it comes to voting in La Mina. They could well choose to weaken Terry by voting off Dan. (I explained this reasoning in more detail last week; luckily it was Casaya that went to Tribal Council instead.) That potentially leaves the three in excellent position after the merge - assuming they can keep Casaya from simply Pagonging them all.

Meanwhile, I still don't see Terry as the same powerhouse that was Tom the firefighter on Palau. Terry is decisive. That is, he's able to make rapid decisions, and follow through. However, he doesn't seem to be always making the right decisions (rice might have been better than beans for example). La Mina is lost in his absence.

It's rare for someone to control the game and win the million dollars. Normally I'd say the odds are against Terry. But, he has that Immunity Idol, and he's had plenty of thinking time away from the tribe to decide how to wield it. On the other hand, since we've been allowed to know he has it, I expect it won't be that simple. On the other hand, we might have been allowed to know this so that we'll think it can't possibly be that simple...!

I think Shane will last a while longer as well, because he's necessary for the tribe to succeed, in the same way Terry is needed by La Mina. He could annoy and alienate enough people that the eventual winner might bring him along as the goat - and, like Richard Hatch, win the million dollars in recognition of his unprecedented style of play.

In short, I think several people, and various groups of people, are poised to turn the game upside down the moment the opportunity presents itself. This week we saw who is really here to play the game.

Next week, I expect, we'll get to see who is here to play the game better.