Survivor Panama: Exile Island
Strategy: Austin's Powers

Stategy Commentary by VikingBear
February 28, 2006

I hope you're ready for something a bit different! Since this is my first essay for Reality TV Calendar, let me tell you what you can expect.

Survivor is all about strategy. Sure, there's skin, and water, and bug bites, and starvation, and misery, and beautiful women, and buff men. We'll mention those things in passing, no doubt, but like Richard Hatch explained during Survivor All Stars, that's the fluff. What counts is to be the last one standing, and we'll look at how each person might get there.

Take this week, for instance. Terry's in an excellent position. It's all too easy to compare him to Tom the Firefighter on Survivor Palau - but I think that's a wrong comparison. As the season unfolds, I'll try to help you draw out the possibilities for each Survivor. What would it take for that particular person to survive, and win?

These essays do NOT contain spoilers. I watch the CBS broadcast same as everybody else, and like everybody else, proceed to make stuff up!

AUSTIN'S POWERS - AND LACK THEREOF
This week we got to see that La Mina is every bit as dysfunctional as Casaya. Without Terry, they can do nothing! They actually said so, on camera. Dan offered to provide some leadership. Dan suggested how to vastly improve the camp while they had the opportunity to do so. Nope; let's eat instead, or take a nap. I can't tell if the fault is with Dan, or with the rest of the tribe. I suspect it's a little of both.

I had great hopes for Dan. I watched "The Right Stuff" and remain confident that Dan completely understands the power of moving forward as a team. And it's just not happening.

Nick spent the whole day trying to catch a fish, surrounded by fish jumping, and came up empty. We see no indication that anyone else even tried. What's up with that? On the first episode, with the four tribes, the younger women ate papaya, and the younger men played baseball with a coconut (or something similar). Why isn't anyone harvesting any food?

It seems to me that Dan had the right idea - improve the camp, and improve their situation. Regardless of whether they like Dan or not, I expect we'll soon see the consequence of La Mina's criminal laziness. A better shelter, larger wood supply, food, will help them ride through that next large storm. Hasn't it occurred to anyone that working together in camp is important practice for working together in the Challenges? They're losing challenges by mere seconds; even the slightest edge can turn around the game.

Remember Sally's losing the fishing spear? Sure, Sally lost it, so it's her fault... but is it? Couldn't somebody have anticipated the catastrophe waiting to happen, going to deep water for the first cast?

Is it possible that Terry, for example, did realize that Sally and Nick were not being as careful as they should be, and simply decided to let nature take its course? Are there people simply watching, letting the fools be fools, and keeping their thoughts to themselves? I thought so at first, but I'm becoming convinced that nobody is really thinking ahead or anticipating. In the game of Survivor, that's fatal!

Terry's on top, sure, and Terry's calling the shots - everyone says so. But we know that Terry's doing whatever Austin suggests. Austin seems to be masterminding such things as Bruce's return to Exile Island, and Ruth Marie's departure. Austin's also exchanging eye signals, if we can believe the editing, with Courtney from the other tribe.

The first episode, Dan and Terry hooked up. The second episode, Nick and Austin hooked up with Dan and Terry. I wondered about that at the time - why would Nick and Austin want to be on the outside, as numbers three and four?

But it's now looking like Austin's playing a deeper game. I expect Dan will be gone next time around, on the same theory as ousting Ruth Marie. Dan's less likely than Sally to help win the next Immunity Challenge. Austin, Nick, and Sally, can remove Dan. Austin can then explain to Terry, after Tribal Council, that they were doing Terry a favor. Terry kept his hands clean; Terry knew nothing about the plan; they took the burden on themselves, out of respect for Dan and Terry both, to remove Terry's partner. They did it quickly, so there would be no jury consequences. And... Austin is such a smooth talker, that Terry's likely to buy it!

Who will go to the next Tribal Council? I wouldn't hazard a guess... it's been a very even back-and-forth so far. However, if it's La Mina, that's almost surely fatal. That takes the numbers down to seven Casaya with four La Mina. No doubt that would be down to seven and three for the merge, but even six and four means an overwhelming majority in favor of Casaya after the merge.

Therefore, I have to agree, Ruth Marie (or Dan) was the logical person to depart. It sure felt wrong, but I think it was right. Sally has a better chance of helping La Mina win the next Immunity Challenge. If La Mina loses this next Immunity Challenge, they could all be gone.

Here's one final thought: Austin suggested that Sally would promise anything now, and jump ship the moment they merged. We've seen Austin's looks at the other tribe. Are we sure that Austin wasn't really talking about Austin?