Strategy Commentary by VikingBear

This week on Survivor: Fiji Islands, Lisi returned from Exile Island to join the Ravu tribe, replacing Anthony. I had Lisi pegged as the favorite to go home. I thought she’d have a hard time breaking into the boys’ club.

But, in the end, Rocky’s mouth got him sent home. Could Lisi be next, and for the same reason? There are quite a few good reasons why Lisi could be going home this week… but I think she’s safe. Let’s take a look at the strategy unfolding.

Looking around the web (no spoilers please!), a lot of experts predict Lisi is going home. I don’t see it that way. On the contrary, I see Alex and Edgardo as the key players of the moment, and they need Lisi.

Before the Merge

First, let’s assume the merge does NOT happen yet. Let’s assume Ravu loses the Immunity Challenge. That’s not much of a stretch to imagine, is it! In that case, what happens?

Alex and Edgardo are tight. I don’t see any reason for either one to turn on the other - not at this point in the game. Five Ravu remain, so a voting bloc of three determines who goes home. So, we have two choices. Alex and Edgardo plus one other makes a majority of three. Or, the other three (Mookie, Dreamz, and Lisi) band together and send Alex or Edgardo home.

Alex and Edgardo seem to be good strategists. They are VERY aware of the numbers game. They will certainly consider the possibility of the other three banding against them. It looks like they might have the Hidden Immunity Idol by that point as well. They need a third person - or one of them will be gone.

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Strategy Commentary by VikingBear

This week on Survivor: Fiji Islands, Tribe Ravu won their first challenge, and continued to self destruct. However, by voting out Rocky, they might have just turned the game around!

Unfortunately for Mookie, it looks like the former Motos have taken over Ravu. There’s only one former Ravu remaining, and that’s Mookie. Last week Lisi looked like the odd “man” out. Now it looks like Mookie. Lisi turned it around. Can Mookie do the same?

This week we landed squarely in the Middle Game. Rocky is the first member of the Jury. That probably means we have the same ending as last season - the Final Three facing a jury of nine.

As I’ve said in each of my strategy essays, I see Survivor as a game of social chess. We have the opening moves and a distinct transition to the Middle Game. We’ll remain in the Middle Game well past the merge, and see a distinct transition to the End Game.

To me, we have just reached the most interesting part of the season! The power is shifting to the jury. We saw Rocky’s attitude right after his primal scream. He promises none of his Ravu tribemates will see the million dollars. Gee… you think maybe this is why Ravu is such a loser tribe? Rocky’s departure could make a HUGE difference!

We’re sending people to the jury, but the merge might not happen for three or four more weeks. Or, it could happen before the next challenge!

We have a number of forces at work to be balanced, marshalled, used. We have the jury, of course, but we also have the cross-tribal alliances. We have five Immunity Idols in play. That can be huge! We have the tribal immunity idol. After the merge we have the individual immunity idol. There’s the idol in Yau-man’s possession. There’s one still buried on Ravu Beach. And, finally, we have the fake Idol which Yau-man buried on Moto Beach. I’ll follow Professor Dan’s suggestion. Since it’s a fake Idol, call it Sanjaya. If people believe in the fake Idol, the wrong person will be going home.

Surviving Survivor is all about the numbers. Winning Survivor is all about winning the social game. Step one is surviving to the Merge, and step two is retaining enough power after the merge. Let’s take a look at each remaining Survivor, and see what they can do to better their chances of winning.

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Copywright March 7, 2007

Last May,2oo6, was a turning point in my 7 year journey of trying out for Survivor reality show. I had tried every antic and attention drawing idea i had. After 12 tryouts I knew I had to do something unique and different. Last May, while I was watching the Survivor 13 finale I was in for a shocker call. About 30 minutes into the Survivor 13 finale show I get a call from my sister-in-law with bad news. I am told that my oldest sister Mary Kath has been diagnosed with gastric cancer and that it is not curable. Here I am watching my favorite reality show and get blasted with such horrible news I just sat in my chair scatter brained and speechless. I continued to watch the show and cried and prayed for my sister and her family.

After the finale show ended, I decided to pour my heart out to Mark Burnett and (more…)

Copyright March 6, 2007

CHAPTER 1 —- After 14 tryouts and approximately 7 years of vested time I guess we can have some laughter, fun and crys with this true and eventful story. Just to prepare you before this story begins, you must know there are many heart touching moments that are very true in this story! But in all honesty I used every antic in the book to attain my goal which was and is to fullfill my dream to get on the Survivor Reality show! My dream is to get on the show and make a change in the life of my family. I will share my dream and reasoning for the goal later in this story. (more…)

This week on Survivor Fiji we finally get to see inside the Moto tribe and observe their alliances. Moto, in choosing comfort over immunity, perhaps made the stupidest decision in all 14 seasons of Survivor.

The funny thing is… as I take a closer look, I’m starting to wonder if we have a brilliant strategist sitting safely at the center of the Moto tribe. That strategist would be the 27-year-old high-maintenance cutie named Stacy. We’ll get back to her in a bit.

Our first departure this week was Gary. According to interviews I’ve read online, it was the bug bites that took Gary down. I’ve been rooting for my fellow Minnesotan! The various reactions were interesting. It’s clear that all of Moto is competing against each other. Gary gone is one less competitor.

Moto is not thinking well as a tribe. They won the reward challenge. They won the immunity challenge. In fact they have won every challenge. After winning the immunity challenge, they were issued the Grand Question: Do you want to give up immunity, or give up the luxury setting and go live on Ravu’s beach?

At this point Moto had… (more…)

Our Minnesota TV station WCCO has a nice article about local Survivor: Fiji Islands contestant Gary Stritesky.

Reporter Jason DeRusha explains, “Yeah he’s a liar,” according to Janelle Kletzin. “He said he was going to Australia to help his daughter with her new house, and then he told me that he had his background being checked for a seniors’ Meals on Wheels thing he was doing. But it was ‘Survivor’ that called me to check on him.”

Of the tens of thousands of “Survivor” wannabes, one thing set this 55-year-old Minnesota guy apart: his audition tape. Gary’s daughter helped him make it — she showed her dad as a survivor in the arctic northland, with a weird sense of humor.

Click below to see the full interview, and the video. The Midwest does Fiji!

Here is the video: Survivor Gary Video

Here is the article: http://wcco.com/topstories/local_story_039193635.html

Tonight on the opening episode of Survivor 14 Fiji Islands we introduced several firsts in Survivor history. We began with 19, rather than 20, Survivors. This seems like a minor consideration - until the architect realized she was the odd one out. What a snake!

Here’s how the opening moves played out. The 19 Survivors were dropped off at sea, in a double hull canoe, given no information whatever, but pointed towards shore. They arrived at camp to find… no Jeff Probst! They went exploring.

Jeff flew by, did his wing walking bit. Well, not really, but he did stand outside the aircraft and sent off a crate on a parachute. Some Survivors swam, and some canoed, to recover the crate. This crate was too small to carry much in the way of supplies… about the right size for a bottle of wine.

Two husky guys, one on each end, smashed the crate a couple of times against a boulder. It wouldn’t break open. They lifted the boulder - one at each side of the rock - and crashed it onto the crate. No damage. (What a great Saturn product placement this could have been!)

Tiny old Yao Man - age 54 but he looks far older - tapped it twice and out sprung the treasure. If Yao Man survives the first week or three, he’ll be one to watch. Besides the brains and common sense, he grew up in Borneo with similar climate and vegetation to Fiji. He knows how to provide food, and probably knows a lot more about being comfortable in this climate and terrain.

The crate contained instructions, a map, and a series of blueprints. They were to build a house, outhouse, kitchen, and so on. It rained that night, and they sure wished they had the roof up. That roof was up first thing in the morning! It’s a good thing that crate carried nothing breakable.

Sylvia Kwan, age 52, is an (more…)

“Survivor: Fiji,” the 14th installment of the Emmy Award-winning reality series, will premiere Thursday, Feb. 8, on CBS with 19 new castaways competing for the $1 million prize. They will begin the series as one tribe with plenty of supplies. On day three, they will be split into two tribes.

The tribe that wins the first immunity challenge will return to the camp of plenty, while the losing tribe must move to a new island with only a pot, a machete and a water source.

Alex Angarita
Age: 28 (born April 20, 1978)
Hometown: Los Angeles, Calif. (originally from Colombia, South America)
Occupation: Attorney
Fun Fact: He recently spent a week climbing Mount Whitney.

Kenward “Boo” Bernis
Age: 34 (born June 21, 1972)
Hometown: Lafayette, La.
Occupation: Construction worker
Fun Fact: He used to work as a crawfish farmer.

Yau-Man Chan
Age: 54 (born Aug. 26, 1952)
Hometown: Martinez, Calif. (born in Hong Kong, raised in Borneo, Malaysia)
Occupation: Computer engineer
Fun Fact: Among the family pets are two rabbits named Ruby and Cupid.

Earl Cole
Age: 35 (born April 9, 1971)
Hometown: Santa Monica, Calif. (originally from Kansas City, Kan.)
Occupation: Advertising executive
Fun Fact: He is also a composer who plays piano, saxophone, guitar, violin and the drums (a little).

Jessica deBen
Age: 27 (born April 25, 1979)
Hometown: Los Angeles, Calif. (originally from New Orleans, La.)
Occupation: Fashion stylist
Fun Fact: She describes herself as ambitious, warm and unbreakable.

Erica Durousseau
Age: 27 (born Dec. 11, 1979)
Hometown: Lake Charles, La.
Occupation: Non-profit fundraiser
Fun Fact: Her favorite sports are football and soccer.

Cassandra Franklin
Age: 42 (born April 19, 1964)
Hometown: Los Angeles, Calif.
Occupation: Civil engineer manager
Fun Fact: She describes herself as fun, warm and giving.

Liliana Gomez
Age: 25 (born April 5, 1981)
Hometown: Oxnard, Calif.
Occupation: Loan officer
Fun Fact: She loves music and singing, and she wants to pursue a career as an entertainer.

Andria “Dre” Herd
Age: 25 (born Dec. 15, 1981)
Hometown: Wilmington, N.C.
Occupation: Cheerleading coach
Fun Fact: In high school, he began playing sports and quickly became an athletic superstar, excelling in cheerleading.
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SURVIVOR WEDNESDAYS RETURNS TO VERSUS WITH THE PREMIERE OF SURVIVOR: GUATEMALA JANUARY 31 AT 8 P.M. ET STAMFORD, Conn. (January 19, 2007)

VERSUS, the exclusive home of Survivor in syndication, takes viewers back to day one of the 39-day adventure in Guatemala, the stage set for the eleventh season of the reality series. Facing a multitude of extreme factors, including elaborate challenges, harsh and ever-changing living conditions, wildlife predators and their own conniving tribe mates, 18 men and women battle it out for the $1 million prize and their chance to be crowned the sole Survivor.

The following is the programming schedule for Survivor: Guatemala on VERSUS (subject to change):

January 31

8 p.m. ET Episode 1: Big Trek, Big Trouble, Big Surprise

The new castaways are stranded in the unforgiving jungles of Guatemala, left to live inside the Mayan ruins in the eleventh installment of Survivor. Upon the Survivors arrival to the ancient ruins, host Jeff Probst shocks the players by announcing that Bobby Jon Drinkard and Stephenie LaGrossa from Survivor: Palau were returning to the game for a second chance at the $1 million prize. Jeff then immediately sets the new teams loose to complete an 11-mile trek through the jungle, with the better campsite and flint at stake.

9 p.m. ET Episode 2: Man Down

After the emotional Tribal Council in which they voted out Jim Lynch, the battered Nakum tribe struggles back to camp. Things soon look up for Nakum, however as they narrowly beat Yaxha in the reward challenge for fishing gear. Despite the win, tension exists at the Nakum camp when Judd questions Blake’s tendency to lounge around all day. Meanwhile members of the Yaxha tribe are reduced to eating ants, grasshoppers and tiny minnows. Later at the brutal version of tug-of-war immunity challenge Danni recognizes Gary as an ex-NFL, Dallas Cowboys quarterback.

10 p.m. ET Episode 3: The Brave May Not Live Long, but the Cautious Don’t Live at All

Rejuvenated and spared by her Yaxha tribe mates at Tribal Council, Lydia vows to keep working hard. Later, tensions arise at Nakum when Bobby Jon and Judd begin to get annoyed at Margaret’s assumed leadership position. Later the 114 degree heat takes its toll on everyone at the Immunity Challenge - an ancient Mayan game of court ball. Yaxha’s losing streak continues as they head to yet another Tribal Council.

February 7

8 p.m. ET Episode 4: To Betray or Not to Betray

In a twisted “reward” challenge individual players receive rewards and later Jeff mixes up the tribes. Thus, switching up alliances and making certain Survivors more vulnerable than before. Gary faces tough questions regarding his status as an ex-NFL player, but continues to hide his identity. Although most Survivors are drawn on former tribal lines, Judd fits in better with Stephenie and Jamie, and quietly makes a pact with them to turn on his old tribe mates. When Nakum loses the Immunity Challenge Judd is forced to either act on his new alliance or stay loyal to his original tribe mates.

9 p.m. ET Episode 5: Crocs, Cowboys and City Slickers

At Nakum camp, Judd shows little regret about switching alliances to Margaret’s chagrin. The prize at the reward challenge is particularly valuable as it will allow the winners to actually swim and escape the brutal heat in a croc-proof deck. Later the Yaxha tribe begins to grow weary of Blake’s fantastical stories and arrogant attitude. A fifth Survivor is sent home.

10 p.m. ET Episode 6: Big Ball, Big Mouth, Big Trouble

At the challenge, Jeff announces that two contestants will be going home, and that the reward challenge will determine which tribe receives a full meal of hamburgers, root beer and beer and a chance to compete for individual immunity. During the challenge there is an intense argument between Bobby Jon and Jamie and later at an explosive Tribal Council the rivalry between Judd and Margaret comes to a head and two Survivors are voted out of the game.

February 14
7 p.m. ET Episode 7: Surprise Enemy Visit

The physical nature of the game takes its toll on Yaxha when they cope with bangs and bruises from the reward challenge. In this episode, the teams play for a sweet reward, chocolate and a zip line tour through the jungle. Later for Danni’s birthday, Yaxha invites Nakum over to their camp for a pool party, but Jamie gets rather paranoid about his tribe mates making friends with the others. Heading into Tribal Council loyalties and alliances are tested as the question of who is more deserving weighs heavily on the losing tribe. After the eighth Survivor is sent home, the Survivors are shocked when Jeff gives them new tribe buffs for the first ever night-time merge.

8 p.m. ET Episode 8: The Hidden Immunity Doll

Tensions flare in the Mayan temples when Yaxha and Nakum merge. The balance of power is immediately clear when the abrasive Jamie announces that the former members Yaxha can sleep outside. The following morning, the former Yaxha tribe members immediately get to work while the powerful former Nakum members sit back and relax. Rafe is left questioning the actions of his former Nakum tribe. Later, the players are shocked to discover that somewhere in the jungle is a hidden immunity doll that could secure one of the players safety until the final four. At the Immunity Challenge, Jamie gets into it again with Bobby Jon, making it abrasively clear that the former Nakum tribe will vote of the Yaxha members one by one.

9 p.m. ET Episode 9: Secrets and Lies and an Idol Surprise

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The TV Guide Channel is running an hour-long preview of the upcoming Survivor season.

There’s a little bit about each player; about the “social experiment like never before;” Burnett and Probst. It’s hosted by Cirie who finished fourth last season. We get to see inside the workshop as they’re building props, and see the Tribal Council area inside the (prop) shipwreck.

Speaking of Cirie… doesn’t she look great! You’ll have to see her to believe her. I won’t spoil it for you !