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Survivor Strategy

Survivor Micronesia: Who are the Fans?

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

Who Are the Fans?

I’m hoping this season of Survivor will bring serious gameplay from everyone. In the past there has always been several who don’t have a clue how to play this game. Hopefully with the casting of people who claim to be real fans, there won’t be anyone on the island that doesn’t know why they are there. I do have some doubts about Kathleen, but time will tell.
So who are these fans? I’ve gathered some information to help you get to know them better.

Jason Siska
Survivor 16 Micronesia Jason Siska
Bio: Born in St. John, Virgin Islands, Siska moved to Chicago for five years before moving to the Barrington area for eight years, then moved to Normal, Illinois where he studied history and Spanish for four years at Illinois State University.
Jason is currently a student teacher at Prairie Middle School in Barrington, Illinois, and also coaches gymnastics for middle and elementary school boys.
His hobbies include rock-climbing, soccer and sailing. He describes himself as spontaneous, liberal and inquisitive. He believes his abilities to rock-climb, fish, hunt, camp, cook, fire-tend, swim, boat and being a great masseuse will help him. He is also a certified PADI scuba diver.
Stats: Age 22, single, lives in Fox River Grove, Il., occupation teacher
Quote: “I’m not evil or devious. But I can be. If it comes down to lying, I have no problem.”
Jeff Probst on Jason: Jason loves to compare himself to Ozzy [the returning Favorite from Cook Islands]. He thinks Ozzy is the greatest player to ever participate in Survivor — I think he’s kind of got a man-crush on him. He’s coming on strong in the beginning saying, ‘I’m going to go toe-to-toe with Ozzy. I can climb coconut trees just like he can, I can swim just like he can, and I’m just as athletic as he is.’ My response to that is, it’s one thing to say it and another thing to do it. So he can talk the talk, but the big question is, can he walk the walk?

Joel Anderson
Survivor 16 Micronesia Joel Anderson
Bio: Joel is a firefighter for the city of Phoenix, Arizona. He assists in the treatment and transport of patients with medical emergencies and also helps fight fires. He has previously worked for a private ambulance company and has also taught. Anderson received a BA in human communications from Arizona State University. (more…)

Survivor China: Lazy Majority Rules

Monday, September 24th, 2007

In the opening episode of Survivor China, Jeff Probst shows the 16 contestants beginning in ultra-modern Shanghai, but they quickly travel back in time to a centuries-old Buddhist monastery. Their 39 days will be spent in the shadow of the monastery, on the Lake of a Thousand Islands. This definitely looks like the most exotic location of any Survivor season. I’m loving it already!

As our survivors hump their huge packs, trunks, and suitcases up the hundreds of steps to the monastery, I was wondering what kind of Survivor is this? And, do these people have a clue, packing all that stuff? Has anyone watched the show? Every season has a couple of “throw away” characters. We’ll soon see who they are. However, as you’ll see below, our throw aways won’t be leaving any time soon!

Every Survivor named Courtney has been highly annoying. This season is no exception! She had no patience for the Buddhist welcoming ceremony. Mind you, no television production like this has ever happened in China. Courtney was invited to be part of this Event, but Courtney wanted no part of it. She’s not too pleased with being out in the woods amongst a bunch of happy-happy people, either. It’s not at all like New York. I think we’ll see a lot of Courtney for many weeks to come. Ick.

After the Buddhist welcoming ceremony, the two tribes departed for their respective camps. The red tribe has it together, quickly building a shelter above the ground and generally getting along well with each other. Courtney tells the camera she’s not happy with all these people being encouraging and telling each other what a good job they’re doing.

The yellow tribe, in contrast, (more…)

Survivor Fiji: How Safe Is Lisi Linares?

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007

Strategy Commentary by VikingBear

Survivor Figi This week on Survivor: Fiji Islands, Lisi returned from Exile Island to join the Ravu tribe, replacing Anthony. I had Lisi pegged as the favorite to go home. I thought she’d have a hard time breaking into the boys’ club.

But, in the end, Rocky’s mouth got him sent home. Could Lisi be next, and for the same reason? There are quite a few good reasons why Lisi could be going home this week… but I think she’s safe. Let’s take a look at the strategy unfolding.

Looking around the web (no spoilers please!), a lot of experts predict Lisi is going home. I don’t see it that way. On the contrary, I see Alex and Edgardo as the key players of the moment, and they need Lisi.

Before the Merge

First, let’s assume the merge does NOT happen yet. Let’s assume Ravu loses the Immunity Challenge. That’s not much of a stretch to imagine, is it! In that case, what happens?

Alex and Edgardo are tight. I don’t see any reason for either one to turn on the other - not at this point in the game. Five Ravu remain, so a voting bloc of three determines who goes home. So, we have two choices. Alex and Edgardo plus one other makes a majority of three. Or, the other three (Mookie, Dreamz, and Lisi) band together and send Alex or Edgardo home.

Alex and Edgardo seem to be good strategists. They are VERY aware of the numbers game. They will certainly consider the possibility of the other three banding against them. It looks like they might have the Hidden Immunity Idol by that point as well. They need a third person - or one of them will be gone.

(more…)

Survivor Fiji: Pairing Off

Sunday, April 1st, 2007

Strategy Commentary by VikingBear

This week on Survivor: Fiji Islands, Tribe Ravu won their first challenge, and continued to self destruct. However, by voting out Rocky, they might have just turned the game around!

Unfortunately for Mookie, it looks like the former Motos have taken over Ravu. There’s only one former Ravu remaining, and that’s Mookie. Last week Lisi looked like the odd “man” out. Now it looks like Mookie. Lisi turned it around. Can Mookie do the same?

This week we landed squarely in the Middle Game. Rocky is the first member of the Jury. That probably means we have the same ending as last season - the Final Three facing a jury of nine.

As I’ve said in each of my strategy essays, I see Survivor as a game of social chess. We have the opening moves and a distinct transition to the Middle Game. We’ll remain in the Middle Game well past the merge, and see a distinct transition to the End Game.

To me, we have just reached the most interesting part of the season! The power is shifting to the jury. We saw Rocky’s attitude right after his primal scream. He promises none of his Ravu tribemates will see the million dollars. Gee… you think maybe this is why Ravu is such a loser tribe? Rocky’s departure could make a HUGE difference!

We’re sending people to the jury, but the merge might not happen for three or four more weeks. Or, it could happen before the next challenge!

Survivor FijiWe have a number of forces at work to be balanced, marshalled, used. We have the jury, of course, but we also have the cross-tribal alliances. We have five Immunity Idols in play. That can be huge! We have the tribal immunity idol. After the merge we have the individual immunity idol. There’s the idol in Yau-man’s possession. There’s one still buried on Ravu Beach. And, finally, we have the fake Idol which Yau-man buried on Moto Beach. I’ll follow Professor Dan’s suggestion. Since it’s a fake Idol, call it Sanjaya. If people believe in the fake Idol, the wrong person will be going home.

Surviving Survivor is all about the numbers. Winning Survivor is all about winning the social game. Step one is surviving to the Merge, and step two is retaining enough power after the merge. Let’s take a look at each remaining Survivor, and see what they can do to better their chances of winning.

(more…)

Survivor Fiji: Tribal Transition

Saturday, March 31st, 2007

Survivor FijiStrategy Commentary by VikingBear

This week on Survivor Fiji, Lisi returned from Exile Island to join the Ravu Tribe. She replaces Anthony who was voted out at the last Tribal Council. Lisi had some tough sailing ahead of her. Tribe Ravu has always lost the Immunity Challenge, and Tribe Ravu has always voted out a woman.

When they shuffled the tribes, Ravu and Moto did alternating schoolyard picks. Ravu chose all men. Lisi was the odd person out. She went to Exile Island for a total meltdown. Ravu lost - as always - but had no woman to send home. Rocky declared Anthony to be the girlie-man and sent him home instead. So far, Rocky the woman hater has controlled every Ravu vote.

Lisi arrives by boat. As she steps off, she grabs a mouthful of sea water, swishes, and spits it back out. She walks into camp. Not one person had come to the beach to see her arrive.

Ravu really is a bunch of losers. We get a stomach full of Rocky’s attitude throughout the episode. We see his best bud Mookie making fun of Yao-Man trying to throw the fire ball in the first challenge. We know Ravu has done pretty much nothing around camp in more than two weeks.

However, that’s about to change. But perhaps not in the way we expect!

(more…)

Survivor Fiji: Alliance of Five

Tuesday, March 6th, 2007

Strategy commentary by VikingBear

This week in Survivor Fiji, we have a great example of why it’s all about the numbers. As I’ll explain below, it’s quite possible that the dominant Moto tribe has just doomed themselves to rapid extinction. Thanks to evicting Liliana this week, it’s possible that not one of the final five Survivors will be from Moto!

How can this be? Moto has won every single competition! I am not talking about a momentum shift due to Moto being stupid. I’m simply running the numbers. Let’s take a look at this "worst case scenario" for Moto, and then run the numbers for some other interesting outcomes.

Last season was Survivor Cook Islands. For the first time ever, there were three finalists rather than two. Becky won the most embarrassing fire-building competition in the history of Survivor, sending her to join Yul and Ozzy for the final vote. There were nine members of the jury. That meant the jury began when we reached the final twelve: 9 on the jury, plus 3 before the jury.

This week on Survivor Fiji, we are down to 14. With two more departures, we are down to twelve. What if the tribes merge when we have twelve remaining? Think about it… it’s plausible. We bring the "have nots" over to Moto beach to join in the feast and comfort. Moto resents having to share their bounty. Twelve is a lot of people for one camp; there will be friction. It’s probably unexpected. And, it might give Ravu the opportunity to obtain both hidden Immunity Idols. (There is one hidden at each camp.) If Moto never gets sent to Exile Island, Moto will never know they have an Immunity Idol hidden in their camp!

Right now, Moto has a strong alliance of five: Edgardo, Alex, Boo, Lisi, and Stacy. Let’s assume we merge at twelve. Right now the two tribes are seven Survivors each, for a total of 14. Either one tribe or the other loses two people, or they each lose one. Let’s run those numbers… (more…)

Survivor Fiji: Controlling the Vote

Sunday, March 4th, 2007

Survivor Fiji This week on Survivor Fiji we finally get to see inside the Moto tribe and observe their alliances. Moto, in choosing comfort over immunity, perhaps made the stupidest decision in all 14 seasons of Survivor.

The funny thing is… as I take a closer look, I’m starting to wonder if we have a brilliant strategist sitting safely at the center of the Moto tribe. That strategist would be the 27-year-old high-maintenance cutie named Stacy. We’ll get back to her in a bit.

Our first departure this week was Gary. According to interviews I’ve read online, it was the bug bites that took Gary down. I’ve been rooting for my fellow Minnesotan! The various reactions were interesting. It’s clear that all of Moto is competing against each other. Gary gone is one less competitor.

Moto is not thinking well as a tribe. They won the reward challenge. They won the immunity challenge. In fact they have won every challenge. After winning the immunity challenge, they were issued the Grand Question: Do you want to give up immunity, or give up the luxury setting and go live on Ravu’s beach?

At this point Moto had… (more…)

Meet Survivor Gary

Friday, February 9th, 2007

Our Minnesota TV station WCCO has a nice article about local Survivor: Fiji Islands contestant Gary Stritesky.

Reporter Jason DeRusha explains, “Yeah he’s a liar,” according to Janelle Kletzin. “He said he was going to Australia to help his daughter with her new house, and then he told me that he had his background being checked for a seniors’ Meals on Wheels thing he was doing. But it was ‘Survivor’ that called me to check on him.”

Of the tens of thousands of “Survivor” wannabes, one thing set this 55-year-old Minnesota guy apart: his audition tape. Gary’s daughter helped him make it — she showed her dad as a survivor in the arctic northland, with a weird sense of humor.

Click below to see the full interview, and the video. The Midwest does Fiji!

Here is the video: Survivor Gary Video

Here is the article: http://wcco.com/topstories/local_story_039193635.html
Survivor Gary Stritesky

Survivor Fiji: Quasi Moto

Thursday, February 8th, 2007

Survivor 14Tonight on the opening episode of Survivor 14 Fiji Islands we introduced several firsts in Survivor history. We began with 19, rather than 20, Survivors. This seems like a minor consideration - until the architect realized she was the odd one out. What a snake!

Here’s how the opening moves played out. The 19 Survivors were dropped off at sea, in a double hull canoe, given no information whatever, but pointed towards shore. They arrived at camp to find… no Jeff Probst! They went exploring.

Jeff flew by, did his wing walking bit. Well, not really, but he did stand outside the aircraft and sent off a crate on a parachute. Some Survivors swam, and some canoed, to recover the crate. This crate was too small to carry much in the way of supplies… about the right size for a bottle of wine.

Two husky guys, one on each end, smashed the crate a couple of times against a boulder. It wouldn’t break open. They lifted the boulder - one at each side of the rock - and crashed it onto the crate. No damage. (What a great Saturn product placement this could have been!)

Tiny old Yao Man - age 54 but he looks far older - tapped it twice and out sprung the treasure. If Yao Man survives the first week or three, he’ll be one to watch. Besides the brains and common sense, he grew up in Borneo with similar climate and vegetation to Fiji. He knows how to provide food, and probably knows a lot more about being comfortable in this climate and terrain.

The crate contained instructions, a map, and a series of blueprints. They were to build a house, outhouse, kitchen, and so on. It rained that night, and they sure wished they had the roof up. That roof was up first thing in the morning! It’s a good thing that crate carried nothing breakable.

Sylvia Kwan, age 52, is an (more…)

Oldest and Youngest Survivors

Thursday, February 8th, 2007

Survivor Fiji begins tonight! Yesterday I watched the Survivor Fiji Preview on the TV Guide Channel. It didn’t have a whole lot to say, but we did get to see the production crew’s encampment, and the Tribal Council area. Just getting to Tribal Council will be more challenging than ever before. More than 200 steps up the side of a mountain!

We’ll see a lot of the cannibalism theme. Fiji Islanders were cannibals as recently as a century ago. The Tribal Council torch-snuffer is a device used for plucking eyeballs out for eating. I expect we’ll see the same device used in a challenge somewhere.

I’m rooting for the oldest - he’s from Minnesota - and the youngest, Michelle. WCCO Channel 4 Minneapolis is running a story tonight about our Minnesotan on Survivor.

Tonight at 8, 7 Central!