Strategy Commentary by VikingBear

This week on Survivor: Fiji Islands, Lisi returned from Exile Island to join the Ravu tribe, replacing Anthony. I had Lisi pegged as the favorite to go home. I thought she’d have a hard time breaking into the boys’ club.

But, in the end, Rocky’s mouth got him sent home. Could Lisi be next, and for the same reason? There are quite a few good reasons why Lisi could be going home this week… but I think she’s safe. Let’s take a look at the strategy unfolding.

Looking around the web (no spoilers please!), a lot of experts predict Lisi is going home. I don’t see it that way. On the contrary, I see Alex and Edgardo as the key players of the moment, and they need Lisi.

Before the Merge

First, let’s assume the merge does NOT happen yet. Let’s assume Ravu loses the Immunity Challenge. That’s not much of a stretch to imagine, is it! In that case, what happens?

Alex and Edgardo are tight. I don’t see any reason for either one to turn on the other - not at this point in the game. Five Ravu remain, so a voting bloc of three determines who goes home. So, we have two choices. Alex and Edgardo plus one other makes a majority of three. Or, the other three (Mookie, Dreamz, and Lisi) band together and send Alex or Edgardo home.

Alex and Edgardo seem to be good strategists. They are VERY aware of the numbers game. They will certainly consider the possibility of the other three banding against them. It looks like they might have the Hidden Immunity Idol by that point as well. They need a third person - or one of them will be gone.

I expect Alex and Edgardo to make a logical choice. That choice has to be the person they can most easily control, and would be least likely to flip and betray them. That person has to be Lisi.

How do they hang onto Lisi? I’m not sure. The logical argument is that Boo and Stacy are waiting to rejoin them after the merge. They’ll be the powerhouse of five. But Lisi doesn’t run on logic. The answer is probably as simple as explaining that Mookie and Dreamz want to get rid of her. That will keep her polarized.

In short, Alex and Edgardo need Lisi far more than Lisi needs them. Lisi is the unstable swing vote. She could vote with Alex and Edgardo, or she could vote with Dreamz and Mookie.

If We Merge

What if we merge before the next Tribal Council? I personally don’t think we’ll merge just yet. It’s plausible, though. Shuffle the tribes up for a couple of rounds, and then merge. That keeps the time short enough that old allegiances might still hold, but also gives time for new relationships to form.

However, I don’t think the merge will happen just yet, because I think the timing has been messed up. Remember someone walked out before the show started. We started with 19 rather than 20. Then, Gary (Papa Smurf) was evacuated. When it’s down to 12 people, the next person voted out is the first member of the jury. That just happened - Rocky’s the first one on the jury.

So, the original plan was that we are now at 13 Survivors remaining, not 11. Last season we had three members on the jury before the merge happened. If we merge now, that would mean the plan was to merge at 13. I don’t think so… I expect we’ll see at least two more join the jury before the merge happens. I could be wrong, of course! That’s my guess based on previous seasons’ performance.

If we do merge, what happens? Total Havoc! Let’s have fun with this and consider the weirdest-case scenario.

First, we have four Immunity Idols in play all at once. We also have four different strong alliances. And, we know from the preview that we have more than a bit of attitude.

Alex and Edgardo dig up the Immunity Idol hidden on Ravu Beach, but don’t tell Lisi. Lisi sleeps while the important stuff is going down. The merge happens, and everyone is now on Moto Beach. Lisi does what she does best. She blabs out the Hidden Immunity Idol clues to Boo and Stacy.

We know Boo can keep a secret. At least, we know that his left hand has no idea what his right hand should be doing. (No, Boo! The other left!) It will take no great feat for Boo and Stacy to hang around Moto camp doing nothing. That seems to be what Stacy does best. Boo takes the pick axe, crunches the fake Idol (code name: Sanjaya) while digging it up, and carefully retains the pieces in the cloth for use at Tribal Council.

Then what happens? Dreamz, perhaps, wins Individual Immunity. Dreamz and Cassandra realize the Alliance of Five is still intact. The other six form an alliance to Pagong the original Moto Alliance of Five out of existence. Those five lorded it over everyone else, and now it’s their turn to see how it feels.

Alex correctly figures out that Yau-Man is the mastermind holding former Ravu together. Yau-Man is the one to vote off. Yau-Man, meanwhile, has peeked in peoples’ bags, looked in corners, etc., and knows that the hidden Idols have been found. Michelle leaks word to Stacy that all six votes might go for Alex, or they might go for Boo. They haven’t decided yet.

In fact, Michelle says, they might simply draw straws as to whom to vote out of the five. It will be a secret random choice just before Tribal Council, and all six votes will go against that person.

So what happens at Tribal Council? This is mere fantasy, I realize, but consider what could go down. Yau-Man, the mastermind, decides to throw all six votes against Stacy. Yau-Man correctly identifies her as the most dangerous manipulator. She could be serious trouble for them in weeks to come. Yau-Man, Michelle, Earl, Dreamz, Cassandra, and Mookie vote for Stacy.

Alex, Stacy, Edgardo, Lisi, and Boo all vote for Yau-Man.

After the vote, Jeff announces that if anyone wants to play the hidden Immunity Idol, now is the time. Boo produces the broken coconut shell (code name: Sanjaya). After Yau-Man stops laughing, Alex realizes he must produce his Idol. He knows he is the mastermind of the Alliance of Five, and a strong competitor. So he produces his Idol and everyone has a good laugh.

The moment Alex came out with the Idol, of course, Yau-Man knew that he is safe. He keeps it a secret. Stacy is gone, the Pagonging has begun, and Yau-Man has the only remaining hidden Individual Immunity Idol.

Four idols, and only one remains. Yau-Man has it!

But that’s too easy. Let’s bring all four idols into play at one Tribal Council. Dreamz won individual immunity. Yau-Man threw six votes at Alex, and Alex threw five votes at Yau-Man.

After the vote, Boo brings out his fake Idol Sanjaya. Alex produces the True Hidden Immunity Idol. Yau-Man realizes he misjudged - the six votes against Alex have no effect. Yau-Man produces the Turtle, places it around his neck, and grins that happy Yau-Man grin.

The six votes against Alex don’t count. The five votes against Yau-Man don’t count. Zero votes remain. Now what???

Throwing The Competition

Professor Jeffrey D. Sadow has an intriguing strategy in his article Strategic Overview of Survivor, Episode 7: Cut Me, Mook. Like myself, he sees Alex and Edgardo as the current power brokers. His strategy is a strong way of keeping that Alliance of Five intact (Alex, Edgardo, Lisi, plus Boo and Stacy from Moto).

Jeffrey’s premise is this: Assuming the merge does not happen yet, just throw the next Immunity Challenge or two. That way, Dreamz and Mookie can be Pagonged right out of Ravu. At the same time, this protects Boo and Stacy. Brilliant!

At this point, if Moto loses an Immunity Challenge, Boo or Stacy are probably headed for the jury. Cassandra will help see to that. So, Alex and Edgardo can protect them by losing!

On the other hand, it’s a dangerous ploy. If they get caught at it, Dreamz might be able to turn Lisi against them, saying they can’t be trusted. Whether it’s true or not, they could say Alex dug up the Immunity Idol without her, and wasn’t planning to cut her in on the deal. You know, lie to her!

Meanwhile, over at Moto, the same strategy applies. Throw the competition and remove Stacy and Boo. I think Earl and Yau-Man are capable of realizing the necessity - if they compare notes with Cassandra. They need Cassandra to tell them what the true alliance is!

Having said all that, what’s really going to happen? Ravu will lose the next Immunity Challenge, and Dreamz or Mookie will be gone. Moto will get a clue, proceed to lose every Immunity Challenge until the merge, removing Boo and/or Stacy. Then the hidden Immunity Idol(s) turn the game around.

I can’t wait!

Survivor Fiji Islands, Survivor Figi, even Survivor Fuji.

Yes, the Fiji Islands have a tricky spelling of their name! Lots of fans are looking for Survivor Figi and Survivor Fuji and Survivor Fugi. So here you are!

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007 at 7:56 pm and is filed under Survivor Strategy, Latest Survivor. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.