Strategy commentary by VikingBear

This week on Big Brother All Stars, our focus has been on the Jedi Council of Kaysar, Janelle, Howie, and James. They are playing a vicious cut-throat game. Is anyone else even playing? Several people are identified as “good players,” such as Will, Danielle, and Nakomis.

It’s weird. Everyone’s strategy seems to be “lay low” and survive a couple of weeks. What are they thinking??? If you’re still around in a couple of weeks, what are you going to do? Hope the Jedi Council falls apart?

The Jedi Council

That… just isn’t going to happen. The Jedi Council just isn’t creative enough to turn on themselves while they’re in power. Do you remember the Nut Case Alliance of Shane, Courtney, Aras, and Danielle on Survivor Exile Island? Everyone thought they would fall apart. They did not, and half that alliance was the final two. The other half was on the jury. They had to stay together.

The Jedi Council is the same way. They’re not as overtly dysfunctional, but they took the power so early that they’ll pretty much have to remain together out of self preservation. They have a strong campaign plan. They worked together last season, and it looks highly likely that they worked out this campaign at their leisure, long before entering the All Stars House.

It’s looking to me like it’s going to take a strategist to beat the Jedi Council. The Jedi Council’s long-term campaign strategy can only be beat by another equally long-term campaign strategy.

The basic problem is that there is no second “side” around which a campaign can form. Anyone who dares to form an alliance of three or more will be the next one going home. The Jedi Council, with their varied strengths, have an excellent chance of winning every competition - every HoH, and every veto.

They probably won’t win them all, but all house guests know they’re likely to win enough of them, that it will be very dangerous to be the one to go against them. If any competition has the chance of teamwork involvement, the others can see that any one of the four wins.

The rest of the house guests are up against a very tough combination. There’s no loyalty. If you do something for your “side,” and then you’re the one out the door… everyone else is just glad it’s not them. Nobody dare trust anybody.

In my view, at the moment, people are not playing to win. They’re merely playing to not lose. The majority of the players, “the floaters,” are frightened and intimidated to some extent. Nakomis, so far as I can tell, is doing nothing to save herself, because she doesn’t want to play against Diane.

That brings us to Will. What game is he playing? I suspect Will revealed his game in one interchange last Friday night:

Will tells Kaysar that his nominations were brilliant. He says that he knows that Kaysar made those choices because it made Kaysar a less desirable target than other members of his group. Kaysar asked Will if he’d been drinking and seemed uncomfortable with the subject. Will replies “not a drop”. He asks Will what he has on his head and Will replies “an ice cube”. Kaysar kind of laughs and runs away.

Kaysar

Before we look at Will, though, we need to look at Kaysar a bit longer. Look at the following Jedi Council meeting notes. Kaysar, Janelle, and Howie are talking strategy that same day, last Friday. Right after Howie walks in, Janelle asks and Kaysar answers:

Janelle: It doesn’t bother you that there’s potentially three people coming after us?

Kaysar: I think there’s more than three. At this point, does it matter whether there’s Chill Town (Chill Town is Will and Boogie) - three individuals together - or three on their own coming after us? Does it make a difference? Not according to the strategy that has been presented to me. We’re the biggest threat in the house right now, won HoH, won veto, won Americas Choice. I’m sure there are other reasons people would want to come after us. We need to stick to a plan because if we deviate from the plan it’s going to look like we don’t know what we’re doing. There’s a reason to take out everyone in this house. At some point, everyone. The question is not who but when.

Janelle: I don’t want to take out Jase. I like him.

Kaysar: But there’s no question that there is a reason to take him out, whether he’s with Chill Town or not. Everyone has to go. It’s just a question of when to take him out.

Howie: Nakomis is the strongest competitor in this house.

Kaysar: I really think she’s under estimated.

Howie: I agree. We can only take out one a week, Janie.

Kaysar: Imagine Nakomis in an alliance with three, four people? She’s giving them ideas, strategy. That would be dangerous. What’s a group without a nucleus, a leader?

Howie: A nerd herd. (laughter)

Kaysar: No, they had a leader. Chill Town has Will, the strategy guy; we’ve got James, who isn’t quite as good on strategy; they have Booger the social guy; we have Howie. Each team has their strengths.

We need to analyze each group’s strengths. Jase will be good with endurance competitions. That’s the time to take him out, when we get to the endurance competitions. We need to play smart… that’s where Janie comes in. You know the game like the back of your hand. That’s when we’ll need your expertise. We can’t rush it; we have to play smart. Not like last year; someone says so and so said this and we rush to change our strategy.

The Jedi Council have a good long-term campaign strategy. The rest of the house doesn’t yet seem to realize the extent of their campaign. The Jedi Council are simply playing at a higher level than everyone else - and it could be weeks before the rest of the house figures that out.

The Jedi Council has the luxury of an overall game plan. They can watch the game unfold, watching how it fits into the context of their campaign. They can reposition assets within the general context of their campaign. From my perspective, the rest of the house is being straight up out-generaled.

Later in the same strategy conversation, Kaysar had a long discourse. As you read this, remember Will’s comment. Kaysar’s playing a game within a game. He’s preparing for losses, and as Will pointed out, he’s preparing those losses to not be him.

Howie - how shall I put this politely, Howie being Howie - expressed deep concern over diet restrictions and not being able to win HoH as a result. This is Kaysar’s opening.

Kaysar: Howie, there’s going to come a time when we won’t have power. We can’t win every Head of Household. What do we do then? We need a plan, a strategy. What it boils down to is, who can we trust? We can trust ourselves but then we can hope the others won’t betray us. But is it really betrayal? They owe us nothing.

Howie: At some point they’ll see this BB6 team keeps rolling and they need their own safety.

Kaysar: Exactly. So we could continue using brute force and take them out one by one, but statistically speaking we’re not going to win Head of Household every week so we need a strategy, taking shots at this house, breaking things up.

Kaysar: If things stay stagnant, if the water stays still, then things begin to fester. You can’t let the water stay still, you have to keep shaking things up. I tried to shake things up this week. I don’t know what’s going to happen. If Boog or Will gets HoH hopefully they won’t put us up, hopefully Dani won’t, or one of us will get it, we’ll be okay one more week. Honestly I don’t know what James would do if he won HoH, he has some new cockamamie he said/she said every week.

Kaysar: This is a different game, guys. If we’re all up on the block, go campaign, save yourself. If we’re all up on the block go try to save yourself. If you can deflect the hit, that’s optimal, that’s first choice, but if there’s no way around it, if you and I are up together, campaign against me, because we’re all deserving.

Kaysar: Last time we said we won’t campaign against each other, but that’s not practical. We can negotiate, we won’t take cheap shots at each other but we can negotiate to save ourselves.

Kaysar: Then the survivors pull the team together again next week, and no hostility, no asking why did you campaign against me? It needs to be understood

I have to agree with Will. Kaysar’s playing a strong game. But he’s also playing so that he’ll be the last of the Jedi Council to depart. He’s trying to play Janelle, Howie, and James, just as much as he’s playing the rest of the house. Will, with a single remark, shook Kaysar down to size.

Kaysar, on the live feeds yesterday (Saturday), made more comments to the effect that he wants to be seen as the good guy. How he’s perceived by the audience is possibly more important than remaining in the house. Kaysar’s beginning to over play his hand, I think. The rest of the Jedi Council just might catch on - particularly if Will happens to make a “chance” remark to the right person at the right time.

Will

With Will, I’m picturing the liftoff for a space flight. You’ve seen it, right? There is a huge first-stage booster rocket. Its job is to get the payload off the ground, onto the right trajectory, achieve escape velocity. The first stage separates and falls back to earth.

I have a feeling that Will is that first stage booster rocket. The payload is Boogie. Never before has someone entered Big Brother House with the intention of making someone else the winner, and playing for that end the entire season.

We haven’t seen much of Will this time. He hasn’t done his thing. He’s already won; what else is there to accomplish? Sure, the odds are against a former winner winning an All Star season, and that would be cool to rub it in everyone’s face. But wouldn’t creating a winner be an even more brilliant sleight of hand?

In my perception, Will isn’t really even bothering to play the other All Stars. He’s just having a nice vacation among friends - and enemies, which makes it more interesting. No, he’s not playing the other All Stars except for entertainment with a casual flick of the wand. He’s playing the producers.

Once he’s nominated, he doesn’t think he’ll worry about the food competition. He’ll eat what he wants. What are they going to do? Give him a penalty nomination? Fire him? The former winner and an audience favorite? Not hardly. His antics mean ratings. They know it and he knows it.

Rumor has it that Will consented to enter Big Brother House only if Mike Boogie were also there. Once again, that’s playing the producers.

What if Will’s strategy is to put Mike Boogie in the final two, in front of the correct jury? Let’s think about that a moment.

Mike is the social guy. He knows how to be popular and liked. Some like Mike and some don’t. So, of course, the answer is to stack the jury with those who like Mike Boogie.

Do you remember Survivor All Stars? Amber did nothing but ride Rob Mariano’s coat tails, and she won. Rob did the work. Rob did the work, and therefore the jury voted against Rob, giving Amber the win.

Sure, let Evil Doctor Will do the work. Everyone knows he lies. Everyone knows he’s evil. He’s a great player. Mike Boogie is annoying and harmless. He’s nothing without Will. It’s obviously important to get rid of Will first, removing Boogie at leisure.

The first stage booster rocket falls away, having inserted the payload in the winning trajectory.

We all know Will and Boogie are friends. We expect them to have a close alliance. Will and Boogie have no need to even bother denying it. Will, of course, is the more dangerous player - and the only season winner in the house. The smarter strategy, obviously, is to send Will home first. The first stage booster achieves separation, and the smarter strategy plays right into Will and Boogie’s hands.

Will has said there’s no way he’s going into sequester. Is he just flipping shit, or is he for real? I think he’s just bullshitting, poking and prodding, looking for a reaction. He could fall away, mission accomplished… but his better strategy is to make the jury.

Think about it. With Will on the jury, Boogie has a guaranteed vote. But there’s a lot more to it than that! We have a potential strategy that has never before been seen to my knowledge. Remember, the power shifts from the house guests to the jury.

Wouldn’t it be interesting if Will’s strategy is to become part of the jury, and continue to quietly play the game while on the jury? Boogie can be the nice guy in the house, making friends, letting the other person make the enemies. Will can do his thing on the jury, finding a reason for each person to vote against the other person and/or vote for Boogie.

Remember, with this sort of strategy, Will only needs to say one thing at the right time, for each jury member. He can safely plant a seed and leave it alone for weeks to grow. He might make only a dozen significant statements over the course of three entire months - and in doing so, win the game for Mike Boogie.

Right now, Will is poking and prodding everywhere. He’s poking things with a stick to see what reacts. He’s poking the producers, determining his limits and parameters. He’s gathering information, by stirring things up from time to time. How will he use that information? Does he have something definite in mind with each poking and prodding? Probably not. He’s gathering intelligence to be used later.

Can Will place Boogie in the final two? I don’t know! But quietly doing so just might be the sort of interesting challenge Will can enjoy. Will could be using himself as his own stalking horse. Keep the focus on Will, when it’s really Boogie who will prove to be the greater danger.

Once Will has been evicted, Boogie could well be perceived as harmless without his alliance. Once someone figures out that a master strategy is still playing itself out, it could be too late.

Funny thing… I notice that neither Will nor Boogie are up for nomination. Everyone saw those two as being the obvious choice. Let the Season Sixers take out their biggest competition. Who would dare retaliate? Funny thing, that… Kaysar left them alone.

Funny thing… Kaysar had a chat with Will and Boogie just before announcing the nominations. The appearance, then, is that Will and Boogie cut a deal to save themselves, and in return won’t nominate the Season Sixers next week. Funny thing… it’s Kaysar who’s looking bad for cutting a deal with the devil. James in particular was annoyed last night for being left out of the loop. Kaysar might consider trying to sway Erika to use the Power of Veto.

Funny thing… if Erika uses the veto, it’s looking most likely that it’s Chicken George who will be back doored, rather than Will or Boogie. No matter what happens, none of the shit seems likely to stick to Teflon Boogie. If Boogie does go home, I have a feeling that things could get seriously ugly, even if Season Six wins the head of household once again. Kaysar knows that. And, funny thing, Kaysar knows he’s not fooling Will one little bit. What if Will had a little chat with James and Howie? Kaysar would rather not have his own strategy exposed. Funny thing, that… Kaysar’s probably thinking he’s safer by protecting Will and Boogie.

Funny thing… Erika seems to be having a bit of a romance with Kaysar. Oh dear… Erika got injured. It seems her ribs got smashed a bit. Not enough to take her out of the game, but enough to call in a doctor. Who smashed her just enough to leave her hurting and keep her on medication for the pain? Funny thing… it was Doctor Will who did the hurting. Funny thing… it was an accident in plain sight.

What if the Jedi Council decides it’s easiest to take out all the floaters first and then set their sites on Jase, Will, and Boogie? Funny, thing, that. That seems to be exactly the plan reached in Jedi Council. They then have the numbers to evict Will without repurcussions. Funny thing, that… that plan puts Will on the jury, and leaves Boogie in the picture at about the time the Jedi Council will be forced to turn on themselves.

The Jedi Council’s campaign could be just what the doctor ordered. They send Will to the jury - and send all the rest of the jury to the jury as well. Boogie does nothing but make friends.

Will’s complimenting Kaysar on his brilliant nominations just might have the ultimate result of putting Will on the jury like a fox in the hen house, and Boogie in the final two among friends. What about the other great players? They’ll be going home. They can’t buck the Jedi Council, and Will can’t be trusted. So the best All Stars remain floaters, and they’ll be going home. Funny thing, that.

Other blogs discussing: Big Brother, Big Brother 7, Big Brother All Stars, All Stars, Reality TV, TV, Television, Entertainment, Kaysar, Will, Janelle, Howie, Mike Boogie

This entry was posted on Sunday, July 16th, 2006 at 11:00 am and is filed under Big Brother Commentaries, Latest Big Brother. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.